The tropical cyclone (TC) outlook for Solomon Islands between November 2019 and April 2020 is near to normal.
That means at least one to two TCs are expected for the upcoming cyclone season indicating significant risk of tropical cyclone impacts. Essentially, note that regional TC forecast for the entire Southwest Pacific cyclone basin, including Solomon Islands region, is expected to be higher with more than 1 to 2 events expected. This indicates the possibility that the number of cyclones could be more than anticipated.
In the final months (February, March, and April 2020) of the coming season, climate models indicates potential warming in ocean temperature around the central pacific. Though the present status of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is at neutral (nor El Niño, neither La Niño), forecasted warming in time shows the chance of little El Niño developing in the Central Pacific. This may potentially elevate the risk of TC impacts for the Solomon Islands territory
Also, remember that November to April is also the wet season of the year. Extreme Rainfall is expected even without a TC event especially during the early stages of TC formation and also note that the peak of the wet season is usually from January to March.
This outlook is based on conducive atmosphere and ocean conditions in historical record that are similar to the 2019/2020 season.
Although, communities might experience some rain conditions over some parts of the country at times, people should not be complacent but start their planning for the coming TC season.
All stakeholders and island communities in the Solomon Islands should prepare for the coming Tropical Cyclone season–November 2019 to April 2020 and listen out on SIBC, FM Stations and other media organisations.
For more information, please kindly contact the Director, David Hiriasia at the Solomon Islands Meteorological Services on: